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Thread: 95th percentile - the sociology study.




95th percentile - the sociology study.
user name
2006-02-27 20:10:29
I didn't realize when I asked for how people handled a
mathematical
function for billing purposes, that the results would be
more interesting
to a socialogist than a network provider. I figured 
	How do you (not how do I)...
would be pretty specific, but apparently I underestimated
the interesting 
ways that would be misread.

7 people wrote me with exactly the answers to the questions
I asked. Nice.

7 people wrote to tell me how to calculate 95th percentile,
but didn't
include answers to any of the questions I asked.
	* On reply/request 5 of them did eventually answer the
questions

4 people wrote to tell me how to calculate 95th percentile,
but did
remember to answer the questions I asked.

2 people wrote to tell me I was doing it wrong, and that I
didn't
understand what 95th percentile was.
	* Both of them eventually admitted that they don't work in
a place
	which calculates 95th percentile for their customers.

The remainder of my 20 samples were offlist
queries/conversations with other 
providers.

Some rough statistics from an admittedly small sample:

1/3 of the nanog repliers understood the question and knew
how to answer
it.  Hmmm.  Nanog clue level is definitely improving.
 
All but three of the people who tried to teach me how to
calculate 95th
percentile were polite and clueful when I reminded them that
I wanted the
math, not a tutorial.  A couple of misunderstanding actually
wandered off
into statistical analysis ramblings which was an amusing
offset to the
next set.

Only three of the people insisted on telling me I was doing
it wrong 
(never posted how we were doing it in the first place, so
this was amusing) 
and tried to clue by four me into their approach.

  2 did the math wrong in their long rants sent back to me


  1 tried to convince me that modern equipment can't handle
being sampled
     more often than every 5 minutes.
 
And all three that tried to argue with me showed in their
analysis that
they don't deal with anything approaching 100Mb peering,
nevermind 1g or 10g.

And for those of you who can count, yes, one of the people
who tried to
teach me how to calculate 95th percentile didn't respond
back either
positively or negatively when I tried to remind him of the
questions asked,
and one was rude. (I don't blame him, after the 10th or so
reply I was too)

For statistical analysis:

2 women responded.  Unfortunately one of them disagreed with
a male
counterpart from the same company and when I asked them to
clarify it turns
out the guy was right. (the girl's math was excellent, but
based on an
incorrect assumption. stereotype reversal in action)

-- 
Jo Rhett
senior geek
SVcolo : Silicon Valley Colocation
95th percentile - the sociology study.
user name
2006-02-27 21:45:18

On Mon, 27 Feb 2006, Jo Rhett wrote:

> All but three of the people who tried to teach me how
to calculate 95th
> percentile were polite and clueful when I reminded them
that I wanted the
> math, not a tutorial.  A couple of misunderstanding
actually wandered off
> into statistical analysis ramblings which was an
amusing offset to the
> next set.
>
> Only three of the people insisted on telling me I was
doing it wrong
> (never posted how we were doing it in the first place,
so this was amusing)
> and tried to clue by four me into their approach.

What? Blanket assumptions of 'You are wrong because you are
not $self'? 
Crazy talk. That never happens.

>  1 tried to convince me that modern equipment can't
handle being sampled
>     more often than every 5 minutes.

I hope you disabused him/her of this notion. Generally,
it's not modern 
equipment that can't handle it, it's usually a (literally,
not 'in my 
opinion') stupid polling mechanism that isn't designed (or
tuned!) to be 
friendly or intelligent in its efforts. Many tools do bulk
table gets
(friendlier, but still overkill, depending on the platform
and port 
density) or full table walks (Unga! You give me data now!),
The general 
non-availability of efficient bulk delivery methods on a
universal basis 
usually means people are implementing full walks.

Having a poller that does one poll an hour/day to inventory 
administratively active interfaces (and keeping unused
interfaces 
disabled), and consequently only polling active interfaces
for counter 
increments, is probably the single most intelligent piece of
logic you 
could implement in a poller to gaurantee the least amount of
wasted CPU on 
your network hardware, especially since CPU time on an x86
database is 
cheaper than router CPU. This is also handy for reconciling
ifIndex shifts 
where persistance is not available or feasible (storing
ifIndex as a 
property of ifName, not vice versa.)

Also, classifying your interface with externally applied
data (Peer? Edge? 
Vlan logical interface? Customer? Infrastructure?) can help
you pare down 
how much polling you really need to be doing, and at what
interval. I'm a 
big advocate of network inventory databases, for this
reason. An example 
of this would include using a Vlan's aggregated traffic
counter instead of 
the 50 individual ports that comprise it, if you don't need
it for your 
billing model (Unless you're taxing the customer for
non-routed netbios 
chatter across your backplane, which I'm fine with.)
Standardized 
interface naming or network discovery toolsets support
automating this, as 
well as encouraging engineers to keep the network tidy and
labelled. This 
little gem of a practice is usually the core of network
management 
standards.

Based on the active interface volume and CPU impact incurred
by the SNMP 
agent on the network device, you should be able to poll
platforms on a 
fairly constant basis and use sliding intervals in your
averaging 
processes, as requirements and router impact demand. Taking
the time to 
benchmark the effects of your polling at different intervals
is an 
engineering step that will keep your operational impact low
as you scale.

As always, your mileage may vary.

Note: If you're small enough that you're still using MRTG,
you can likely 
just ignore everything I just wrote.

> And for those of you who can count, yes, one of the
people who tried to
> teach me how to calculate 95th percentile didn't
respond back either
> positively or negatively when I tried to remind him of
the questions asked,
> and one was rude. (I don't blame him, after the 10th
or so reply I was too)

My process for self-filtering posts to nanog:
1. Read post in thread.
2. Is post by a known windbag? If yes, delete and continue.
3. Draft response.
4. Suspend response in outbox for at least half an hour.
5. Ask, 'Does this post add anything constructive/funny to
the thread?' If 
no, delete and continue.
6. Ask, 'Will this post likely trigger hits on my procmail
filter by the 
aforementioned windbags?' If yes, flip a coin, because
anything posted 
with an opinion will likely cause that. (Yes, Martin, it's
there, before 
you respond to check.)
7. Ask, 'Was I pissed off when I wrote this?' If yes, let
sit for another hour, goto 5.

This entire process used to be prefaced with '0. Subscribe
to posting 
list.' This was usually enough to deter a post until
something annoyed me 
sufficiently to get through the whole process. ;)

- billn
95th percentile - the sociology study.
user name
2006-02-27 22:21:51
> > 1 tried to convince me that modern equipment
can't handle being sampled
> >    more often than every 5 minutes.
 
On Mon, Feb 27, 2006 at 04:45:18PM -0500, Bill Nash wrote:
> I hope you disabused him/her of this notion. 

I didn't try to disabuse anyone of any notion - other than
the fact that I
didn't need help implementing 95th percentile - in hopes
that they would
answer the survey.  Even without trying to answer I ended up
in far too
many conversations :-(

> Note: If you're small enough that you're still using
MRTG, you can likely 
> just ignore everything I just wrote.
 
Er... MRTG out of the box.  Some people have extended
MRTG/rrdtool usage
extensively.  You can get a lot of use out of RRDTool if you
are willing to
write your own tools to (ab)use it.

But yes, generally true 

-- 
Jo Rhett
senior geek
SVcolo : Silicon Valley Colocation
[1-3]

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