RE: Obama's speech today

> -----Original Message-----
> From: G Money [mailto:gm0n3y06gmail.com]
> Sent: Wednesday, March 19, 2008 8:36 AM
> To: CF-Community
> Subject: Re: Obama's speech today
> 
> On Wed, Mar 19, 2008 at 7:31 AM, Jim Davis
> <HOFListsdepressedpress.com>
> wrote:
> 
> Here's the problem with that Jim: If he gets elected,
what does every
> first
> term president spend those 4 years doing? Ensuring they
have a second
> term.
> And how do you do that? By playing to the people who
got you the FIRST
> term.
> 
> So if he sells out his ideas to get the nomination, we
can expect at
> least 4
> years of him continuing to do that. So at that point,
you've just hired
> another conservative, and haven't really gotten
anything new in the
> deal.

And if you present something really new and stick to it...
you don't get in
at all.

McCain could not have done what Obama's done.  The democrats
are laboring
under the (probably false) assumption that "anybody
could beat the
Republicans" this time out.  It's a historic campaign,
but one that could
alienate already threatened conservatives more.

The fact that Huckabee got as far as he did was horrifying
to me... but it
does show how many people out there think like he does. 
McCain could not
run the same campaign he was used to (or anything like
Obama's) and have any
chance.

Could the Republicans really have chosen any better?  McCain
is still, for
all his maneuvering, seen as essentially a centrist.  This
may piss off true
conservatives... but they'll still vote for him even if only
to keep Obama
out.  Just assuming that McCain has everybody
"right" of McCain means a hell
of lot of votes.

McCain should still be able to pull some of those fabled
fence sitters to
him.  He's still got a reputation as being a moderate and is
well-respected
among the younger audience (John Stewart has seen to that).

For those worried primarily about foreign policy McCain may
appeal.  He's
definitely got more experience in the area and is an actual
(as opposed to
cardboard) veteran (so presumably will honor the needs of
the troops more).
He's for the war, which will hurt him, but has been
outspoken with
criticisms on its handling which could appeal to those
pragmatists saying
"we already broke the cookie jar, now let's make sure
we do things right".

McCain will also pull, of course, anybody with a racist (or
in the unlikely
case of a Hillary nom, sexist) bone in their bodies
regardless of
affiliation and I doubt we've got a serious handle on those
numbers in this
country yet.

Since McCain already has the right tied up no matter what
(since the Dem
choices are so far left) he can also feel free to choose an
out and out
liberal as a running mate.  He could even choose a Democrat
if he wanted (a
move that I think would clinch a victory for him).

Again I'm betting that the same "middle America"
that voted in droves in
2004 to stop the threat of rampant, state-sponsored
homosexuality will be
out in force to prevent either Obama or Clinton from
assuming the mantel.
Since they've no choice but McCain I think this means that
a) McCain doesn't
have to run as conservative a presidential campaign as he
ran to gain the
nomination and b) there's going to be a very tough road for
any democrat,
but especially for these democrats.

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I think that McCain's
pragmatism in
understanding what needs to be done to get elected will pay
off for him.  As
for his first term in office... the same arguments could be
used.  If he
does well at all there's little chance that he won't get the
Republican nod
and we're in the same boat: any liberal democrat to the left
of McCain will
have the same problems as Obama does now.

(Of course I may not need to say this, but these are things
as I see them...
not as I wish things were.  The two party system: it's a
bitch.)

Jim Davis


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On Wed, Mar 19, 2008 at 8:43 AM, Jim Davis <HOFListsdepressedpress.com>
wrote:

> McCain could not have done what Obama's done.  The
democrats are laboring
> under the (probably false) assumption that
"anybody could beat the
> Republicans" this time out.  It's a historic
campaign, but one that could
> alienate already threatened conservatives more.


It's historic because I think the 2008 election is the ONLY
election where a
Barack Obama and his message of hope with little or no
experience to back it
up...would ever have a chance at the presidency.


> Could the Republicans really have chosen any better? 
McCain is still, for
> all his maneuvering, seen as essentially a centrist. 
This may piss off
> true
> conservatives... but they'll still vote for him even if
only to keep Obama
> out.  Just assuming that McCain has everybody
"right" of McCain means a
> hell
> of lot of votes.


No, the republicans could not have chosen better. McCain is
one of only a
handful of republican candidates that would have a chance in
this election.
Even though Bush endorsed him, everyone knows he doesn't
like him. The scars
sewn when Bush and Rove destroyed McCain during the 2000
election run too
deep.

Americans are looking for the anti-Bush, and McCain is one
of the few
republicans who MIGHT be able to convince people he is just
that...even with
a Bush endorsement!

McCain will also pull, of course, anybody with a racist (or
in the unlikely
> case of a Hillary nom, sexist) bone in their bodies
regardless of
> affiliation and I doubt we've got a serious handle on
those numbers in
> this
> country yet.


Hopefully that number is small, but yes, it is still a
reality.


> Since McCain already has the right tied up no matter
what (since the Dem
> choices are so far left) he can also feel free to
choose an out and out
> liberal as a running mate.  He could even choose a
Democrat if he wanted
> (a
> move that I think would clinch a victory for him).


THe hard core right, yes, will vote for McCain simply
because they always
vote republican. But don't discount the ability for the
inspired message of
Obama to appeal to some moderate republicans who are sick of
Bush and
everything associated with the republicans right now.

I don't think McCain has the right "tied up". I
know several moderate
republicans in my state who are seriously considering
Obama.

Again I'm betting that the same "middle America"
that voted in droves in
> 2004 to stop the threat of rampant, state-sponsored
homosexuality will be
> out in force to prevent either Obama or Clinton from
assuming the mantel.


Hillary, yes. Obama, i'm not so sure. I don't see the same
blatant hatred
and fear of Obama among the thumpers here in the Bible belt
that I see for
Hillary, or any other democrat candidate for that matter.

They come up with other reasons to oppose him, mind you, but
that blind
hatred isn't there with Obama....at least not that I see.

Since they've no choice but McCain I think this means that
a) McCain doesn't
> have to run as conservative a presidential campaign as
he ran to gain the
> nomination and b) there's going to be a very tough road
for any democrat,
> but especially for these democrats.


I think it's tougher for democrats because the republican
candidate,
contrary to the past elections, is a candidate that some
democrats might be
able to embrace. The cross over vote on both sides is going
to decide this
election.

I still think the George Bush affect will be the deciding
factor...ultimately convincing more morderate Republicans
and independents
to cross over to the left, than visa versa.

-- 
Her face used to feel so soft
Until her agent's doctor pulled it off


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> Jim wrote:
>  McCain could not have done what Obama's done.

The largest thing that Obama has done is motivate people to
get
involved in government.  My hope would be that, if elected,
he can
make it prestigious to serve again (non-military).

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